Back to Stories

Je, Data Bora Inaweza Kumaliza Umaskini Ulimwenguni?

By Kentaro Toyama
May 19, 2012 6 min read
Source: theatlantic.com

Mwanauchumi mashuhuri wa maendeleo anazungumza juu ya uzuri na mapungufu ya mbinu inayotokana na data ya kuponya matatizo makubwa zaidi duniani.

Reuters

Je vyandarua vya bure katika baadhi ya nchi vinasababisha visa vingi vya malaria? Je, dawa za kuzuia vimelea zinaweza kuongeza mahudhurio ya shule katika nchi moja na hazina athari katika nchi nyingine? Je, huduma ya kinga inapaswa kuwa nafuu kwa familia za kipato cha chini ili kumuona daktari?

Huenda kusiwe na njia kamili ya kujibu maswali haya magumu kwa misingi ya nchi baada ya nchi. Lakini baadhi ya wanasayansi wakuu wanafikiri jibu kali zaidi linatokana na kile wanachokiita "majaribio yaliyodhibitiwa bila mpangilio."

Esther Duflo anatambulika sana kama mtetezi mkuu duniani wa majaribio yanayodhibitiwa nasibu katika uchumi wa maendeleo. Kama mbinu, RCTs zimetumika kwa zaidi ya nusu karne katika dawa za kimatibabu, ambapo athari ya dawa au utaratibu wa matibabu inathibitishwa au kukataliwa katika majaribio ya kisayansi yanayohusisha vikundi vya udhibiti na matibabu. Matumizi ya RCTs kushughulikia umaskini duniani ni jambo la muongo uliopita, lakini imeshikamana na mabadiliko ya dhana katika uchumi, sera za umma, na taaluma nyinginezo.

Mwaka jana, Duflo* na mshiriki mwenzake katika J-PAL, Abhijit Banerjee, walichapisha kitabu kiitwacho Poor Economics: A Radical Rehinking of the Way to Fight Global Poverty . Kitabu hiki kinatoa muhtasari wa mengi waliyojifunza kupitia RCTs na vinginevyo, na kinashikilia madai makubwa dhidi ya "majibu makubwa ya jumla" na "hitimisho kuu" kuhusu umaskini. Badala yake, wanapendekeza mbinu inayoendeshwa na data inayotafuta majibu mahususi, yaliyolengwa kwa kile kinachofanya kazi hasa, kinachofanya kazi vizuri zaidi, na kile kinachofanya kazi kwa gharama nafuu.Esther Duflo anatambulika kote ulimwenguni kuwa mtetezi mkuu wa dunia wa majaribio yanayodhibitiwa nasibu katika uchumi wa maendeleo. Kama mbinu, RCTs zimetumika kwa zaidi ya nusu karne katika dawa za kimatibabu, ambapo athari ya dawa au utaratibu wa matibabu inathibitishwa au kukataliwa katika majaribio ya kisayansi yanayohusisha vikundi vya udhibiti na matibabu. Matumizi ya RCTs kushughulikia umaskini duniani ni jambo la muongo uliopita, lakini imeshikamana na mabadiliko ya dhana katika uchumi, sera za umma, na taaluma nyinginezo.

Kwa kuwa nimefunzwa kama mwanafizikia na mhandisi, ninashukuru na kuunga mkono mbinu ya kisayansi ya Duflo ya kupambana na umaskini. (Ufichuzi kamili: Niko kwenye bodi ya Innovations for Poverty Action, mshirika wa karibu wa J-PAL.) Hata hivyo, nikisoma kitabu hiki, mambo mawili yalikuja kukumbuka mara kwa mara: Kwanza, sayansi bora inahitaji nadharia kama vile majaribio. Data bila nadharia nzuri ni kipimo tu, si maarifa, na nadharia yenye nguvu mara nyingi inajitokeza. Kama jambo la vitendo, nadharia husaidia kutudumisha tunapokosa data. Pili, Duflo na Banerjee wanaonekana kutoridhika na msimamo wao wenyewe dhidi ya majibu mazuri. Sura nyingi za kitabu hiki huhitimisha kwa sehemu zinazotoa matamko ya jumla kuhusu afya ya umma, elimu, fedha ndogo, na ujasiriamali, mara nyingi haziungwi mkono kabisa na majaribio. Sura yao ya mwisho, yenye kichwa "Mahali pa Hitimisho la Kufagia," hata hivyo inatoa kauli tano pana kuhusu watu maskini duniani kote.

Nilimuuliza Duflo maswali kuhusu RCTs na kitabu chake kupitia barua pepe...

KT : Unafikiri ni mchango gani mkubwa zaidi wa RCT hadi sasa katika maendeleo ya kimataifa?

ED : Kwanza, tumepata maendeleo mengi kwenye mijadala ambayo pengine bado tungekuwa tunajadiliana bila kikomo: Je, kutoa vyandarua kwa ajili ya matumizi bila malipo kunakatisha tamaa? Je, bei zisizo za sifuri zinakatisha tamaa matumizi ya huduma ya kinga? Pili, tumetambua baadhi ya hatua zinazoleta matumaini, na hizo zimeanza kuongezwa, huku dawa ya minyoo ikiwa mfano mkuu. [KT: Dawa ya Minyoo inarejelea vidonge vya kuzuia vimelea ambavyo vinapotolewa kwa watoto vimeonyeshwa kuongeza mahudhurio ya shule.] Tatu, tumekusanya ujuzi wa kutosha katika baadhi ya nyanja (elimu ya msingi, kwa mfano) kwamba tunaanza kuwa na mtazamo mpana wa kimfumo wa matatizo na ufumbuzi. Nne, pengine muhimu zaidi, umuhimu wa kujaribu mambo chini ya uangalizi mkali, wa kuacha wazi uwezekano wa kushindwa, sasa unatambulika zaidi ndani ya serikali na mashirika. Nadhani mabadiliko haya ya kitamaduni yanaweza kuwa mchango mkubwa zaidi kwa muda mrefu.

KT : Ni changamoto gani kubwa zaidi katika jinsi RCTs zinavyoendeshwa, kufasiriwa, au kuzungumzwa kivitendo? Au, kuuliza swali kwa njia tofauti, ni desturi gani kuu ndani ya jumuiya ya watu wanaoendesha au kusoma kuhusu RCTs ungependa zaidi kubadilisha?

ED : Sina mengi ya kulalamika kuhusu kweli. Nadhani kwa sasa, watu ni wabunifu sana, wakijaribu kusukuma mipaka katika pande nyingi: kujumuisha nadharia zaidi, kuchanganya miundo ya miundo na majaribio, kuchanganya "majaribio ya maabara" na RCT, kujaribu mambo ya ujasiri kama vile kubadilisha mishahara kwa watumishi wa umma bila mpangilio.

Pia ninatiwa moyo na jinsi matumizi ya RCTs yanavyoingia katika miduara ya sera, lakini hapo nina tatizo moja: Nadhani watunga sera wako tayari kutumia majaribio ili kuhalalisha kufanya jambo fulani, lakini jambo ambalo hatujaona bado, ni matumizi makubwa ya majaribio ili kupogoa sera.

KT : Nilipochukua kozi za uchumi kama mwanafunzi wa shahada ya kwanza, nakumbuka nikifikiria kwamba sehemu kubwa ya uchumi ilikuwa jaribio la kutoa maelezo ya sababu kutoka kwa data haswa katika hali hizo wakati RCT hazikuwa na maana. Dhana kamili ilionekana kuwa RCTs zingekuwa bora, lakini bila kutokuwepo, uchumi tata ulikuwa muhimu. Je, hii ni tafsiri nzuri ya mbinu za kiuchumi, na kama ni hivyo, unafikiri ni kwa nini imechukua muda mrefu kwa uchumi wa maendeleo kukumbatia RCTs?

ED : Nadhani, kwa kiasi fulani, sisi kama uwanja tunaweza kuwa tulidhani ilikuwa ngumu zaidi au ghali zaidi kuliko ilivyokuwa. Ujanja wa kweli wa Michael Kremer ulikuwa ni kujaribu RCTs kwa bajeti ndogo. Kisha, wengi wetu, tukitiwa moyo na mfano wake, tulianza kufanya kazi kama hiyo, tulijifunza hatua kwa hatua kile ambacho watu wamejua kwa muda mrefu katika nyanja zingine za kisayansi: kwamba kuna uwezekano wa kupata pesa kwa masomo ya kitaaluma. Kwa hivyo tulianza kuongeza pesa zaidi. Mawazo haya mawili kwa pamoja yalifungua uwanja mzima.

KT : Katika kitabu chako, unabishana vikali dhidi ya nadharia kuu za maendeleo ya kimataifa, ambazo zinaweza kufasiriwa kama kukiri wazi kwa uchangamano wa maendeleo. Hata hivyo, RCTs katika uchumi wa maendeleo mara nyingi ni RCTs ya tabia ya binadamu katika miktadha fulani. Je, basi, unamaanisha kwamba hakuwezi kuwa na nadharia kuu za tabia ya binadamu?

ED : Kwa hakika kunaweza kuwa na maarifa ya kinadharia, tunahitimisha na mengine kwenye kitabu. Lakini hakuna mfumo mmoja mkubwa ambao utaweza kuelezea kila kitu, au suluhisho kubwa kwa kila kitu.

KT : Ingawa kuna makubaliano madhubuti juu ya malengo ya maendeleo ya kimataifa, watu binafsi mara nyingi wana mawazo tofauti kuhusu malengo ya mwisho. Baadhi ya watu wanadhani ni kiwango fulani cha mafanikio ya kiuchumi kwa kila nchi; wengine wanafikiri ni huduma ya afya na elimu kwa wote; bado wengine wanafikiri ni haki ya kijamii; nk Je, una lengo la mwisho akilini ambalo unafanyia kazi?

ED : Sina hakika nina maoni kweli kuhusu hili, au kwamba ni lazima. Nadhani malengo yanapaswa kuwekwa na mchakato wa kisiasa, na kile ambacho jamii wakati fulani inatamani ni muhimu. Ninaweza kuwa na maoni yangu juu ya kile ambacho ni muhimu katika maisha, lakini mimi si mwanafalsafa, na sihisi kuwa ni kazi yangu kuwaambia watu kile wanachopaswa kufikiria ni muhimu. Nadhani kazi ya mchumi inapaswa kuwa kusaidia watu binafsi au jamii (kupitia watunga sera zao) kufikia malengo haya, mara tu yamepangwa.

***

Kwa vyovyote vile, Uchumi Mbaya ni jambo la lazima kusoma kwa mtu yeyote anayependa maendeleo ya kimataifa, na imetolewa hivi punde kwa karatasi. Iwe unaamini katika nadharia kuu au la, ni vigumu kukataa thamani ya data na uchunguzi makini. Banerjee na Duflo hujaza kitabu chao maarifa ambayo umeshinda kwa bidii kutokana na uzoefu wa kibinafsi na utafiti wa kisayansi. Na, licha ya Duflo kukabidhi malengo yake ya kimaadili kwa falsafa na nyanja ya umma, shauku yake ya kimantiki ya kusaidia jamii masikini kote ulimwenguni inasikika kwenye kila ukurasa.

______

*Duflo anamshukuru kwa ukarimu mwenzake, mchumi wa Harvard Michael Kremer, kwa kuanzisha wimbi la hivi majuzi la RCTs katika maendeleo ya kimataifa, lakini ni juhudi zake bila kuchoka, na msukumo kutoka kwa mfadhili asiyejulikana wa Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL) huko MIT ambayo imefanya RCTs kuwa za kawaida.

Share this story:

COMMUNITY REFLECTIONS

5 PAST RESPONSES

User avatar
Noor a.f May 21, 2012
They all necessary. there was another comment disappeared before I made reply. I know there are a lot of things that make harder things. To point first one is trust and it is the backbone of everything. So without going long way of trying tiresome points, tell simplest and reason. Not doing so is lack of trust of the simple ways."we prefer the NGO work to be this way because that way is not best for such...such...such.."You can put it like that way but if you go as far as 1 million pages is lack of trust.If there are certain ways of doing things and you know works best then say the.You didn't cause any problem but some fear and it happens  because of authority.I really don't tolerate violence but when I look the feelings of my actions I feel what innocent Asians would feel like. It was intended the woman who spoke up to be in as cases would be worked. So that she would learn how to respect human feelings and laws but money launderer might saved.Well, I am not complaining anything. I j... [View Full Comment]
Reply
User avatar
Shirley M May 21, 2012

A couple of things: if you have no food and shelter, you die. If you have no access to health care and hygiene, your life span is severely shortened. If you have no access to education, it's almost impossible to be a part of the solution. So from a purely 'common sense' point of view, I wouldn't have thought the basic necessities of life such as food, shelter, health and education were basics that could be left out of any RTCs. Do we really need to spend time and money figuring out if a 'society' really wants these things? 

Reply
User avatar
Noor a.f May 19, 2012

Well, it seems there had been misunderstandings about what to be done and how to be done. Woman is repressed  and if she would have known that it is as simple as this she would have owned google seach "N.A" long ago. Well, we teach only what you say and only how you say. Just make next step, it is that I was called today by someone I last knew was in Nairobi and now is very far, Finland.  I recognized her voice before I changed mine because I was in Sale and couldn't ask money nor could I let her know it was me. So I had 3 feeling at one time...So i started to feel shame.
Anyway, our NGO can teach Buddhism, Jews and whatever else you like. Make a progress and I don't mind much about it. All I need is to be on google search for dignity and make something that has value.

Are we together? It is just that simple if you can make and understand people who are left behind. 

Reply
User avatar
EnkosaRiverSchool May 19, 2012

More information please contact us:
enkosariverschool@gmail.com

Reply
User avatar
EnkosaRiverSchool May 19, 2012
WELCOME FRIENDSsaladgsÞwgvtþRBH\nÞekasaENKOSA RIVER SCHOOLWe are allvery happy to welcome you all to Enkosa River School, Enkosa Buddhist Pagoda,Siem Reap.The Schoolis for ALL local children, teenagers and adults completely free of charge.They come tolessons 5 days a week to learn and improve their foreign languageskills...mainly the English Language...to give them better opportunities of agood job in tourism in the future here or maybe work or study abroad.1.        THE SCHOOLOpened inNovember 2010 and currently has 8 classes nightly and around 150 regular happystudentsranging from3 years of age to 30!We employ 3Part Time Khmer Teachers on a modest salary and rely on volunteer nativespeakers...now 100 per cent English Native Speakers , usually students who staya week or two or sometimes fully qualified teachers who have some free time wholive in Siem Reap.Educatingthe students in a mature, interesting and fun way.We receiveno funding from either the Cambodian Goverment nor t... [View Full Comment]
Reply